Aerospace Daily & Defense Report
August 25, 2009
U.S. Researchers See Problem-Plagued Russian Military
Several U.S. researchers in Washington painted a grim picture of the Russian military Aug. 24, saying the former Cold War adversary has embarked on a necessary reform campaign after decades of corruption and shrinking capacity.
Two researchers, Stephen Blank of the U.S. Army War College and Dale Herspring of Kansas State University, told a Hudson Institute audience that Russian media and military leaders are widely lamenting the state of Russia's military, recently brought to worldwide attention by its difficult - albeit ultimately successful - invasion of Georgia a year ago. "The Russians were not ready for that war," Herspring said.
Indeed, the self-criticism started as soon as just weeks after the August 2008 war. Senior Russian military officials, both active and recently retired, loudly criticized early setbacks in Georgia which included problems in air defense suppression, intelligence analysis and warnings, air attack planning and speed of response, Aviation Week & Space Technology reported Sept. 1, 2008.
Russia's military is plagued by endemic corruption - perhaps around 40 percent of the annual budget is essentially stolen, the U.S. researchers said - and ineptitude. Moreover, technologically, Russia has suffered at least one lost decade. "Ten years were basically lost, 1990-2000," Herspring said.
Indeed, Blank said, the idea that Russia is going to Israel to buy unmanned aerial vehicles is a scandal in Russia. In March, Russian Army Gen. Nikolay Makarov, head of General Staff of the Armed Forces, said the defense ministry must acquire at least an initial batch of UAVs from abroad, since local industry is not yet ready for the job (Aerospace DAILY, April 8).
"Don't expect major weapons modifications for several years," Herspring said. The Russian military will be first focused on internal reform.
Nevertheless, the latest Russian defense guidance reflects a "growing sense of anxiety," according to Blank, refocusing on asserting a "sphere of influence" around the Eurasian giant, while still eyeing the United States above terrorism, major weapons proliferation or even China.
Energy disputes will lead to armed conflicts around Russia, especially the Arctic, Middle East and Central Asia, predicted Blank and Joshua Spero of Fitchburg State University. "The Russian military still sees NATO as a threat," Spero said.
Moscow will come to rely on its air, naval, electronic and even nuclear capabilities in the face of NATO and other challengers, according to Blank.
-- Michael Bruno


