Could Mike Huckabee be the 2012 presidential nominee?

Could Mike Huckabee be the 2012 nominee? AP photo
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) leaned heavily toward the 2012 presidential race over the weekend, telling Fox News Channel's Chris Wallace that he "does better against [President] Obama than any other Republican."
After Huckabee's interview -- in which he also cited a "strong sentiment out there" for him to run -- the governor wrote a blog post on the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan in which he sought to remind people of the stakes in elections. "When I hear a statement like 'Republicans and Democrats are all the same,' I cringe and think of moments in our nation's history just like this one," he wrote.
Huckabee has also used his HUCK PAC to endorse and donate to candidates of his choosing -- although his fundraising capacity to date doesn't rival that of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty -- both of whom are widely expected to run for president in 2012.
Of late then, Huckabee is giving every public indication that he is ramping up a run for president.
In private, however, there is little evidence that Huckabee is doing the sorts of things -- broadening his political network, hiring a team of experienced campaign operatives and, most important, focusing heavily on fundraising -- that would convince the D.C. chattering class that he has learned the right lessons from the 2008 campaign.
"While he is making noises in the national press, I am not seeing any of the organizational moves that would tell me he is making a serious run," said Alex Vogel, a Republican lobbyist closely monitoring the 2012 field. "The people inside the Beltway won't get moved by statements in the press. They will look for real action."
Hogan Gidley, who runs HUCK PAC, insisted the fact that Huckabee's approach to politics is different from some of his potential 2012 rivals is a strength, not a weakness.
"The Governor's success comes from his expansive, nationwide network of committed volunteers who believe in true conservatism," said Gidley. "Much to the chagrin of many Washington, D.C., insiders, Gov. Huckabee's success has come without all the help from the establishment or high paid political consultants."
Gidley added that Huckabee has organized volunteer teams in each of the 50 states "awaiting the slightest hint of a presidential run" and that HUCK PAC has nearly doubled its 2009 donor base in just the first six months of 2010.
"Money is an important component to elections -- no doubt -- but if the Beatles and the 2008 presidential cycle have taught us anything, it's that money can't buy you love," said Gidley, channeling his always-quotable boss.
Gidley's points are worth noting -- and his hiring is evidence that Huckabee is playing the game a bit more seriously. (Gidley is a former executive director of the South Carolina Republican party and replaced Sarah Huckabee, the governor's daughter, who is now running Arkansas Rep. John Boozman's Senate campaign.)
And yet, there still seems to be a sense within Huckabee's world that simply re-running the 2008 campaign is a winning blueprint.
In that race, Huckabee managed to win the Iowa caucuses while being drastically outspent by Romney in a campaign that depended heavily on his base among social conservatives, strong volunteer support and his obvious personal appeal as an outsider (of sorts) to the political process.
It's important to remember, however, that Iowa was the only early state that Huckabee carried. He took just 11 percent in New Hampshire to finish a distant third and while he bounced back to finish second in South Carolina, he placed fourth in Florida's primary. By then Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) had wrapped up the nomination, although Huckabee stayed in the race and won a handful of (mostly Southern) states.
There's considerable reason to believe that simply re-creating his 2008 strategy in Iowa might not be a recipe for success for Huckabee.
Consider:
* Huckabee had the social conservative field virtually to himself in 2008 as the other prime contenders for the nomination -- McCain, Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) -- were not, first and foremost, social conservatives. It's hard to imagine Huckabee having such a clear run in 2012. The field remains too fluid to make hard and fast predictions about who might compete with him for the votes of social conservatives. But Pawlenty, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Texas Gov. Rick Perry would all try to co-opt Huckabee's support in this critical voting bloc if they ran.
* Huckabee was largely ignored by the likes of Romney until it was too late in Iowa in the last race. You can be sure that Romney -- and the rest of the field -- won't make that mistake again. And, don't forget that the Club for Growth, which has flexed its considerable muscle in the 2010 cycle already, vehemently opposed Huckabee's candidacy in 2008 because of the taxes and fees he raised as governor. If Huckabee runs, he will have a MUCH larger target on his back than he did in 2008. (And, don't forget the name Maurice Clemmons; Huckabee's opponents sure won't if he decides to run again.)
* Huckabee has aligned himself closely with Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa, the man who ran unsuccessfully for governor earlier this month and unsuccessfully challenged former Gov. Terry Branstad's pick for lieutenant governor at the state convention over the weekend. To date, Vander Plaats has not endorsed Branstad's candidacy and has floated the idea that he will run for governor as an independent this fall. Such a move would put Huckabee in a tight spot -- particularly given that Branstad is a strong favorite to be elected governor this fall and will have a major role to play in the state's 2012 first-in-the-nation caucuses. "It would be disrespectful to Mr. Vander Plaats and to many of Governor Huckabee's friends and supporters in Iowa if he were to endorse Governor Branstad without Mr. Vander Plaat's having already done so," said Gidley today when asked whether Huckabee had any plans to get behind the GOP gubernatorial nominee.
The larger question facing Huckabee: In a nominating process heavily dependent on mechanics and process, can a candidate who openly eschews both have any real expectation of winning?
The strength of Huckabee's personality -- and the authenticity he exudes -- should not be underestimated. (Make sure to read the New Yorker's lengthy profile of Huckabee for insight into the power of his personality.)
But neither should the fact that operationally he is well behind candidates such as Romney and Pawlenty. Mechanics don't win nominations -- if they did, Romney would have been the nominee in 2008. But they ensure that if a candidate's message catches on, he/she has the infrastructure in place to take advantage.
Re-creating his 2008 campaign and message then won't be enough for Huckabee. Leading in very early national 2012 polls is all well and good but isn't a true measure of a candidate's likelihood of winning the nomination. (See: Clinton, Hillary Rodham circa 2008.)
By dint of his 2008 campaign and the national profile it afforded him, Huckabee has an opportunity to build on what he accomplished in 2008. But, will he take it?
By Chris Cillizza | June 28, 2010; 2:05 PM ET


