Here's the delegate count as of today 3/8/12 following the "Super Tuesday" vote:
429 Romney (38%)
169 Santorum (15%)
118 Gingrich (10%)
67 Paul (7%)
783 Total (34% of the 2,286 total delegates)
Numbers in parentheses are the percentage each candidate has of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination. There are 1,503 delegates remaining for the candidates to divvy up.
Two Southern states, Alabama and Mississippi vote next Tuesday (90 total votes) and Missouri (52 votes) votes on the following Saturday, the 17th. Louisiana (46 votes) holds their primary March 24th. Romney is not likely to do well in those states but the remainder of the candidates, especially Santorum, should. If Santorum wins all four states with 50% and the rest split evenly (doubtful), then the candidates stand at: Romney 40%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 13%, and Paul 9% with 1,315 delegates remaining. Romney would have to win 684, 52%, of the 1,315 in order to win the nomination, certainly not impossible but not highly likely considering four more Southern states (including Texas) with 286 votes will vote in May.
There is some speculation that Gingrich might drop out. If he does, Santorum should be very close to overtaking Romney assuming Gingrich's delegates are released to Santorum.
Today's Rasmussen poll has the candidates among Republicans nationally at: Romney 39%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 17%, and Paul 10%. That is reasonably close to my estimate of delegate strength. It still looks to me like an open, brokered, convention.
Malcolm
429 Romney (38%)
169 Santorum (15%)
118 Gingrich (10%)
67 Paul (7%)
783 Total (34% of the 2,286 total delegates)
Numbers in parentheses are the percentage each candidate has of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination. There are 1,503 delegates remaining for the candidates to divvy up.
Two Southern states, Alabama and Mississippi vote next Tuesday (90 total votes) and Missouri (52 votes) votes on the following Saturday, the 17th. Louisiana (46 votes) holds their primary March 24th. Romney is not likely to do well in those states but the remainder of the candidates, especially Santorum, should. If Santorum wins all four states with 50% and the rest split evenly (doubtful), then the candidates stand at: Romney 40%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 13%, and Paul 9% with 1,315 delegates remaining. Romney would have to win 684, 52%, of the 1,315 in order to win the nomination, certainly not impossible but not highly likely considering four more Southern states (including Texas) with 286 votes will vote in May.
There is some speculation that Gingrich might drop out. If he does, Santorum should be very close to overtaking Romney assuming Gingrich's delegates are released to Santorum.
Today's Rasmussen poll has the candidates among Republicans nationally at: Romney 39%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 17%, and Paul 10%. That is reasonably close to my estimate of delegate strength. It still looks to me like an open, brokered, convention.
Malcolm

